Today being a Tuesday, it is the day when our ‘granny gang’ meets up in Waitrose and Tuesday mornings always hold a particular significance for us. But our numbers were a little depleted this morning because we knew that one of our number had a social worker appointment and one of the others has injured her shoulder somewhat in a fall she sustained last Friday. I don’t think the injury is a serious one but one to keep her out of the normal swing of social events for the next few days which I know she is going to find annoying. But today for the benefit of one the long term partners in Waitrose who is responsible for the plants and flowers section of the store, we brought along our little mechanical toy bear which sings ‘When I am 64’ (Yes – the Beetles song) and sways in time to the music. I had threatened to bring the toy doll along loaned to us by our domestic help so today was the second time the toy has been inflicted upon the store. So this all good fun and on our way home, we were happy to bump into two sets of our friends. The first was our Irish friend who was proceeding down the road with her daughter and two grandchildren and the second was our Italian friend. We had brief conversations with each of them and it always gladdens the heart when we have a chance of chat. Today the journey back was threatening to be particularly hot and humid so we were quite pleased to have two little mini-breaks on the way back. Practically as soon as we got back and inside the house (quite a procedure as the wheelchair wheels have to be cleared of the gritty particles they acquire whilst on the public roads and pavements) it was time for the midday carers to arrive which they did promptly. After Meg had been made comfortable and as they had about ten minutes in hand before they had to dash off to their next job, we all made a sojourn into our back garden where I treated all of us (five of us – Meg and myself, the two carers and the ‘sitter’ who arrived early) to a treat of some vanilla ice cream. This was very much appreciated and not the kind of treat which carers typically enjoy but I like to do my little bit to make them welcome whenever they do come. But the weather was so warm and humid today that I was driven to put on a more cotton-rich shirt which I only do in the most extreme of temperatures. A good thunderstorm may help and one may be on the way in a day or so. As is was so hot today, we could not fancy another hot dinner so threw together a salad like we did yesterday but added some hardboiled eggs for a little variety in place of potatoes.
The British media is obsessed with two huge current stories. The first is a horrid stabbing in Southport where a 17-year old male youth has run amok killing (at the last count) three young chidden and with another five still on the critical list together with two adults who were trying desperately to defend them. One really does wonder what extreme of mental illness or a drug-fuelled addictions which is the animus behind trying to stab so many people to death – and children at that. The other huge story is that yesterday the new Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced £22 billion of budget cuts to fill the so-called Tory ‘back hole’ I say ‘so-called’ because the Tories are saying the whole thing is a Labour party invention to justify the tax cuts they had planned all along. The Tory government had announced a policy of ensuring that people in long term residential care (such as Meg might be) would not have to sell their houses once they had contributed a total of £86,000 towards their own care costs. They then postponed the implementation of this for two years from 2023 until 2025 (i.e. October next year) but Labour have gone one better by abandoning the policy of an £86,000 cap altogether. The Labour argument, no doubt, is that the policy, if implemented, would disproportionately benefit middle class home owners but I feel this misses the point. In my own extended family, my mother and Meg’s mother and my sister’s mother-in-law all funded their own care by the sale of their own houses leaving nothing for their children to inherit, surviving just long enough in each case for the entirety of their capital to be exhausted before they met their Maker.
Meanwhile I learn from my internet browser, Microsoft Edge which is tuned to give ‘American’ news prominence that the internet has been set alight by a Fox News (i.e. extreme right wing and hitherto Trump supporting media channel) that according to the latest polls Harris is leading Trump in each of five key swing states. There is another, altogether more academic analysis, which is pointing in the same direction. After predicting decades of presidential elections with near-perfect accuracy, historian Allan Lichtman revealed that Democrats have the edge using his time-tested formula. Lichtman told Fox News that he used 13 true-false questions — which he calls ‘keys’ — to determine who will win the presidency. A candidate receives a ‘key’ if a question is true. Lichtman has a checklist of items on which each candidate holds the key and these include such as the short and long term prospects for the economy, foreign military success/failure and incumbent/challenger charismas (from a list of 13 items) So far, Vice President Kamala Harris has held the lead over former President Donald Trump. The historian said that Democrats held six ‘keys,’ including the primary contest, the short-term and long-term economy, policy change, no scandal, and no challenger charisma. Meanwhile, Republicans held three ‘keys,’ according to Lichtman. The keys included the Republican 2022 primary win, the current incumbent’s not seeking re-election, and the current incumbent’s lack of charisma. Lichtman’s analysis has been highly accurate in its predictive ability in the past so this is a very significant pointer for the future. But I do see a case where Trump ‘blows up’ i.e. makes more and more outlandish claims and more and more extreme statements as he feels more threatened which might further alienate the moderate centre. Last time the so-called ‘double haters’ who disliked both of the main candidates tended to fall for Trump in the last analysis but in this election it is said that the balance is much more even – if some of the ‘double haters’ are republicans. And of course, those who actually turn out and are not disbarred from voting is a critical factor in this election as well.
© Mike Hart [2024]